Your weekly S/TAR breakdown

Big Brass Ones

Wow. You look at the game of Survivor and you place yourself in the situation. What would/could I do here? Someone once said, “I don’t believe in the no-win scenario”, but they do exist. There are times when your back is against the wall and there’s nothing you can do. Oftentimes even if you have a play all you’re doing is treading water, waiting out the inevitable.

If his 1.5 seasons of Survivor should have taught me anything, it’s to never bet against Russell. He was dead in the water so many times, but was still available to make a move and literally outwit, outplay, and outlast his competitors. Shockingly the time he defied the odds the most was in not walking away with the million dollar prize (which he deserved.)

This brings us to the current season. Russell’s bravado was the weak-point in his gameplay the first time around, and his second attempt is proving to be more of the same. Coming in as an unknown entity he had the advantage of no one knowing what he was about and how he played the game. Then he put himself in a bad position by defying the tribe and looking for the immunity idol. This put a target square on his back.

Having the immunity idol meant that he could guarantee his survival for another week, which would have been the definition of putting off the inevitable as his allies dwindled in number. But that was his option, that was his play. Anything else would be suicide, right? So he does the unthinkable, and wins this round. Now his play is interesting, because Russell is like a chess player, he’s not thinking about the next move, he’s thinking three moves ahead. By giving his little speech and directly talking towards Coach he might have the ability to even the playing field at 4-4. Break it down.

Russell, Parv, and Danielle: Russell’s core group.

Rob: Wants Russell out in a way that could lead to his undoing.

Sandra: Will follow whoever she thinks will move her further in the game.

Jeri: I think she’ll flop if need be.

Courtney: I don’t think she has a firm alliance to anyone except herself.

Coach: The linchpin to how things go from here on the Villains side.

If Coach flops I think he brings someone else with him. If he doesn’t another idol may be the only thing that spares Russell. Russell has a good play to make right now. They are one, maybe two, at most three episodes from the merge. If the Villains lose and have to go to tribal this week Russell can point out that Rob is a long-term threat in the individual game. He ceases to be a value as anything else than a number post-merge. Therefore getting rid of him now benefits everyone.

The heroes are a completely different story and I think the merge will completely shatter the game regarding alliances and it will be an interesting free-for-all. If Parv, Sandra, Danielle, Jerri, Courtney, Amanda, and Candace have a brain amongst them they will band together as an estrogen alliance and pick off the men. Given prior history, that is likely to happen.

Which brings me to my last point: How dumb are all of the people playing? If you look at the seven people eliminated so far, how many of them were getting rid of weakness? Sugar, yeah I can see that. Stephanie, one of the strongest women ever. Randy, okay, but not weaker than Courtney, Danielle, Parv, Jerri or Sandra. Cirie, sure. Tom, get off the crack pipe. James, sure (due to injury). Tyson, WTF. These people are playing the game backwards. They created core alliances so early that it became purely about surviving week to week and not about winning as a tribe.

God is in the Details

I wish I could have been on this season of The Amazing Race. Not just because I would love to run it, but moreso because there appears to have been some kind of IQ cap for this season. You have an IQ of 145? Sorry, you’re too smart to run the race. The key to surviving from week to week and winning in the end is paying attention to the details. You need to have a certain amount of focus to win the race, and it seems that pretty much every team has a lack of focus on the most important thing: the details.

Once is unique, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern.

On this leg, three separate teams made the same mistake. That is a pattern. So far seven episodes have aired. On at least five of them Map Girl and Tool Boy were penalized or had to redo a portion of a leg. Come on. If they make the top three (they will), I will break a television. Fortunately I have a really old television in my basement that doesn’t work so well, so its sacrifice won’t be that bad.

Steve & Allie – Forgot their packs. Will this come back to haunt them? Who knows.

Dan & Jordan – Ran a fairly good leg.

Map Girl and Tool Boy – Forgot a coconut. He pronounced he quit. It is laughable how poorly they are running the race.

Louie & Michael – Fairly good leg minus dorking around at the airport instead of getting seat assignments.

Lesbians – I really wonder how nice the one with gray hair is. I can’t tell because the ugliness of the dark-haired one overshadows her. Forgot a coconut.

Cowboys – Forgot a coconut, dorked around at the airport, left the map on the boat. Wow, what a bad leg. I feel they will bounce back next week.

The thing that cracks me up is almost every team thinks they are one of the best teams. Prior to this week I would say the cowboys and the cops were the top two, and everyone else was a distant second. That is forgetting the miserable first couple of legs the cops had. Now the cowboys blow this leg completely. Who is the best? At this point I would have to give it to Steve & Allie purely from a consistency perspective. They aren’t the strongest team by a long shot, but are consistently getting it done. Usually you look at it as eventually the cream will rise to the top, but even though this season has several entertaining teams, there aren’t any great teams.

The two minute drill

Poorly worded analogy

In football the value of a quarterback is often based upon how well he runs the two minute drill. How effectively can he put together a game-winning (or tying) drive when he's behind and he has his back against the wall. Sorry if I offend anyone by using "he" as my pronoun of choice to talk about quarterbacks, but that bitch from "Mad About You" not withstanding, the quarterback position is the domain of the penis owning gender.

Let's take a step back, shall we? Let's say your team is down 9+ points (2 possession game) with around five minutes left. What do I want to see? A sense of urgency. Hustling up to the line of scrimmage. Quick, smart plays that move you up the field in a hurry. Granted you don't want to cross the line over into panic town, but at least look like you want to win.

This is something I've thought about. Whenever I've played sports I've wanted to win. To try to be the best. When it becomes your career does that change how you feel about it? I'll play sports hurt, but am much less likely to come to work if I have a high fever. If I skip a game because I'm sick, I'm really sick. When sports are your job, does that lessen that competitive part of your brain, because it is for the paycheck?

You're probably wondered if you wandered into the wrong blog. Nearly five paragraphs in and not a single solitary mention of any reality TV show. Well here it goes:

Not knowing the financial backgrounds of participants it makes it a little hard to judge what their priorities are and if money is even an issue for them (Amazing Race wise). However, if you have a 1 in 7 chance to win a million dollars (per team), don't you think if you know that you're near the bottom you might want to RUN? Maybe jog, break a sweat, do something to increase your chances of continuing on?

Jeff and Jordan - Wow. Big Brother was much better suited for you. Even though an intelligence issue wasn't their undoing (however Joan did not gather the animals for the Ark), they had no drive. They were behind, should have been cut last week but got spared by luck, but they fumbled on. It didn't seem to really matter to them to try a little to make up some of the time that they were behind. I found them extremely entertaining and endearing, but it was insulting how little effort they seemed into actually trying to compete.

Map Girl and Toolboy - Another Noah/Joan set of geniuses. I think if you threw in the movie "Raiders of the Lost Ark" their heads would explode from confusion. They remind me of the friends whose wedding you go to knowing that it won't work. They genuinely don't seem to like each other that much. If he does quit next week as alluded to in the previews (he doesn't since I'm fairly certain they make the top three) I will make it my life's mission to find him and kick him in the balls.

La-la-la-lesbians - Half of you need to shut up. The constant bitching about having to do what you willingly signed up for is enough already. There is (at least) another lesbian couple sitting at home watching the show that is wishing nasty things upon you because you took "their slot." It is insulting to everyone who has tried to get on this show for you to piss and moan about the opportunity you have. And frankly it's disrespectful to the show.

In Defense of Reality TV (some of it)

Reality TV is the brunt of many critical remarks. Some of this is, quite frankly, valid. Shows like "More to Love" (not sure if that was the actual title, I called it "The Fat Bachelor and his un-thin girls", "Rock of Love", "Flavor of Love", etc. are not exactly high-brow material. They may be entertaining, but you're not going to learn much, and may actually catch something from watching them. There are other shows that are not only compelling, but do have some educational value, if just for the insight into the human condition.

"The Biggest Loser" - At first glance the most awful show in the world. Taking advantage of over-weight people and exploiting them. However I think this show is a big example of you get out of it what you put into it. The show really does try to change people's lives and outside of the obvious built-in commercials it does also show people watching how to change some of their bad habits. Unfortunately the eating problems lots of these candidates have has a recidivism rate similar to pedophiles.

"American Idol" - I think Idol is different just because it is a skill show. Whether you like his music or not I don't think you can argue that Clay Aiken can't sing. It's a skill, like juggling. There is some inherent nastiness (especially during the audition shows), but still most of the people on this show do something I cannot.

"Survivor" - This is a tad bit more difficult to defend, however I can. "Survivor", to me, is about how people deal with relationships on a games related level. How people learn to leverage their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses to further themselves in the game. Lots of criticism about the show comes from people lying and backstabbing, etc. Take a minute to compare it to your local poker game. More likely than not you are playing with people you are friends with. Whether the stakes are in the hundreds or the low thousands you still are trying to best people you've probably known for a long time. I have no issue bluffing my friends trying to take their money when we're sitting around a table. Raise these stakes by several orders of magnitude and have my play against strangers, I'll do whatever I can - within the rules.

"The Amazing Race" - Often referred to as the show that almost everyone would do, and one of the few shows that people would do again. It shows cultures that most Americans would never experience, and frankly most don't know enough to care about. It shows a nice juxtoposition of what happens when you put Americans in other people's back yards. It shows some much of the human condition, and how little our little corner of whereever is in the grand scheme of things.

.. .----. -- .- -.. ..- -- -... -....- .- ... ... --..-- ... --- .. .... .- ...- . - --- -... . . .-.. .. -- .. -. .- - . -.. ..-.

Actually it's:

.. .----. -- .- -.. ..- -- -... -....- .- ... ... --..-- ... --- .. .... .- ...- . - --- -... . . .-.. .. -- .. -. .- - . -.. ..-. .-. --- -- - .... . .-. .- -.-. . .-.-.- , but it wouldn't fit in the title heading.

There are few things in life that bother me so completely as people who squander opportunities or don't realize the opportunities they have.

Jeff and Jordan - I don't like returning people. I think that someone that's run the reality show gambit (win or lose) had their shot. All-star editions are somewhat of an exception, but I still think it takes away some of the fun of getting to know new personalities. Still, they are an engaging team. Not smart, to be certain, but engaging. Jeff is funny (intentionally) and Jordan is unintentionally funny. I don't know if any inept racers have ever made it this far in to the race. They can't win. Jeff pointed out the elephant in the room that if you have a one in eight chance to win a million dollars you move your ass. How people get this is beyond me. Jordan has her half a million, so I guess she doesn't care so much.

Map girl and Tool Academy candidate - Receiving a time penalty of about 50% of the legs is very telling. Some people can't read instructions. I think the editors had fun trying to find the instances that paint them extremely poorly. However they do seem to appreciate the opportunity. He's still a tool, and she's still not the brightest bulb.

The team that just got eliminated - Felt bad for them. However, that's why you get cocky whilst not around others.

The detectives - Have finally pulled it together, and seem to be enjoying themselves. I thought playing the u-turn when they did was dumb, but see below.

10 percenters volume one - The brothers seem to be enjoying themselves despite themselves. Could they argue more?

10 percenters volume two - The lady with the short dark hair does not deserve to be on the race...at all. I would have loved to see her try to decipher the morse code. I didn't sign up for this? Wow. Just wow.

Cowboys- my fav. team.


How not to use a blind U-turn (and have it work for you)

The beauty of a blind U-turn is that you can use it and no one (unless you're stupid) will know for sure that it was you. You're in first place, you have two teams less than 10 minutes behind you. You use the blind U-turn it's not going to do anything other than piss off the team you U-turned. Add in the fact that there is a very inept team literally 3 hours behind you that has a secondary task to do and you are just wasting the opportunity.

Of course the reliance of the population at large on technology to do anything means that something that nearly every adult male used to know how to do is now a forgotten skill. Honestly I don't know how well I would have been able to decipher the code either, but I think over the course of several hours I would be able to crack it.


Where do we go from here?

The is a surprising lack of teams that are really good. The cowboys and the detectives are the only two that really seem able to step it up. That leaves at least one spot in the top three that is up for grabs. I can't believe that the two intellectually challenged teams can make it (I'm sure Map girl and toolboy do, though), so that leaves the two 10% teams and the father/daughter team. Time will tell.

//10 percenters is not meant to be in any way disparaging.

///Mapgirl and toolboy is meant to be disparaging.

Mark Hamill isn't a Jedi, either

Today's blog is brought to you by the word "editing" and the letters W, T, and F.

Editing

If you put a camera on me for 24 hours a day, you would gather enough footage over a 3 day period to paint me any way you want. Grab your thesaurus, sit down with FCP and you can make me a good guy, a terrible guy, someone deeply in love with his wife, a serial cheater, etc. I'll give you the sound bites and the clips.

Take Tuesday as a perfect example. I am not a good competitor. I play to win. I will put my body out there in a fucking rec. league, because losing just sucks. I don't play dirty, per se, but I give as good as I get. You shove me, you can bet your ass I'm going to push you back just as hard. There was a ball up in the air and the goalie was out of the box. I used my natural height advantage and leaned in and he went down. Take that five second sequence and don't give it the context of me being checked into the boards 30 seconds earlier and I look like the bad guy.

This brings me to Survivor. The theme this season is Heroes vs. Villains. I've already blogged about why some people are mis-labeled, so I won't rehash this here. Someone on a message board pointed out that the editors kind of painted themselves into a corner coming into this season. You had 10 "bad" people, and 10 "good" people. It is easy to make someone look bad, it is much harder to make them look good. So you have the 10 "good" people and they look much worse (as people) than the "bad" people.

James - won the people's prize twice. Has come off as a complete bully, a poor sport (I play hard, but I shake the hands of the other people [sincerely, not out of necessity] as soon as the game is over), a brute (at best), and damn near a sociopath (at worst.) Pretty much every week he has done something outside of the actual challenges that makes him look like a dick. Throwing the bag at Randy, bullying Steph (who I didn't like so I'm the last person to take up the white knight role with her), pointing the finger of blame at everyone but himself.

Rupert - I know this is sacrilege, but I've never liked Rupert outside of the first couple of episodes of his original season. He was much too much of a baby for my liking, and he became very enamored of his edit in his follow-up visits to Probstland. He threw a girl into a fencepost tonight. I would bet cash money he didn't do it on purpose, but his actions afterwards really paint him badly.

Colby - Well I'll skip him til the next part.

5 down, 15 to go

I've covered Rupert and James (and neither of them can win), so that leaves 12.

JT - Can't win. Dug his own grave. His constant obvious flip-flopping makes him a target. See WTF section below.

Colby - I can't believe how boring he has been. He has been a non-impact on this season so far. Can't win.

Amanda - She has a shot if she makes it to the merge. Her non-threatening lack of athletic prowess makes her a good shot to go far. However she can't give a speech to save her life, so she could finish as high as second.

Candace - On the outside looking in. Doesn't have a shoulder to cry on or a pot to piss in. Could go deep if she makes the merge, but she couldn't win.

That covers the heroes, so I don't think one of them could win.

Tyson - has not gotten much air time, which either means he is keeping a low profile or he learned from before. I would call him a dark horse, but he could win.

Sandra - Can't win. Shouldn't have won before. Will make the merge and probably top 6.

Danielle - Hasn't been a factor yet. I think she's trying to fly under the radar and probably actually has missed some challenges and nobody noticed. She could win, only because she hasn't done anything to make anyone mad. She'll go top 6 also.

Russell and Rob - One of them makes top 3. The other doesn't make the merge. It could go either way, but the odds favor Rob. By the way Rob earned my respect this season when he talked about how much he respects the game. It was a nice moment that showed he actually understands how this whole thing changed his life.

Jerri - Couldn't stand her the first two go rounds. Still "enjoyed" her Playboy spread. She will come in 7th.

Parvati - Wildcard. If Russell survives Boston Rob she goes top 3. If Rob survives Russell she either doesn't make the merge or gets booted shortly thereafter.

Coach - Another wildcard. Has no shot to win. If he picks the right pony (Russell or Rob) he goes to the top 6. If not he also is a pre-merge or immediately thereafter boot.

Courtney - I picked it in China. If she makes the merge she goes far.


WTF

Everyone on this season has played before. A few of them have won. Some of them should have, but came in second (Russell, Colby). No one has an excuse for being as stupid as they are. I will focus squarely on the heroes because the lion's share of idiocy has come from their side.

Sugar - Okay, I can see this one. She wasn't a big help physically or mentally, and she's a fucking basket case.

Stephanie - WTF #1. You have Amanda and Cirie sitting there, and you go with Stephanie. I didn't like her, but she was physical. Much more so than Cirie, and more so than Amanda. Cirie is only going to help herself and is a post merge mastermind.

Cirie - Finally someone makes a good decision. However half of their tribe wanted either Colby or Tom out. That's just dumb. JT did this one right.

Tom - WTF #2. Seriously? You have someone who is more or less crippled and you keep them? James stating that he is more valuable hurt than Tom is healthy? That's crazy. James is a liability now. Rupert is also, but not nearly to the extent that James is.

The heroes are just playing stupid. There next move will be Candace or Colby, but probably Colby. Once again WTF. On the upside, this should ensure the demise of the heroes tribe.

Bonus WTF: The villains are teeing up either Rob or Russell. Courtney and Sandra don't add anything to the mix.


It's Amazing

I haven't blogged about the Race in the better part of three weeks, so here's a brief update about last week. Three words: soccer, beer, and red-light districts. Man, could I have rocked this week.

It amazed me (no pun intended) that the teams had such a big problem with the boot of beer. It was also disheartening that they didn't actually drink the boot correctly, but that might be a Madison thing.

I said the cowboys would get their shit together, and they did. Nice to see the cops pull it together. Jeff and Jordan are entertaining, but can't win it. Eventually the need for an IQ over the Mendoza line will eliminate both them and the map girl team.

It is fun to watch the show with the wife and say, yeah, I've been there before.