Matt, oh Matt. Why?
There are two mistakes regarding alliances that can kill you in reality shows. The first (and most common) one is abandoning your alliance too early. Countless times on Survivor people have jumped ship from their alliance, thinking the grass is greener. The second mistake is sticking with you alliance too long. When you have an alliance that contains more than two people, eventually you will have to start eating your own to get to the final two.
Matt stuck with “The Brigade” too long. After last week and his eye-opening experience with the benefit of the DPOV he knew he was fourth in an alliance of four. Back on the block this week he should have known that he was gone unless he made a move. Did he have a move to make? Absolutely, he had a great move. The voters were Brandon, Ragan, Hayden, and Lane, with Britney being the potential tie-breaker. It was obvious that he could have had Ragan. Hayden and Lane were snuggly in Enzo’s corner so he would have to work on Brandon, making a deal with the devil, but he did have a trump card which could have won both Brandon and Britney over. He should have EXPOSED “THE BRIGADE”! By doing so he levels the playing field. Everyone already saw him as a scheming liar, but by bringing out the others it would show that they were just as duplicitous and deceitful as he was. Brandon would have been a tough sell, but he (Brandon) had actually started playing with the departure of Rachel and he would have seen that Matt/Ragan/Britney would be easier to beat than the other option.
Elimination II: The Quickening
Had the nominations stayed the same last night for the second eviction, who would have gone home? I honestly think Ragan would have walked out the door directly behind his showmance partner Matt. Which would have been stupid, but would have fit with the MO of “The Brigade”. Without Matt “The Brigade” is like a really dumb, really strong infant. It has no logic with how it is doing things and is thinking about immediate gratification rather than the long-term picture.
Who’s left, who can win?
Ragan – If Ragan makes it to the end I think he wins. Before he FINALLY got evicted, people had talked about how if Brandon made it to the end they’d have to give it to him. Ragan is in the same boat.
Britney – She can’t win. Even though she has done very well and has won her share of competitions, I just can’t see her winning…unless she is in the final two against…
Enzo – He really can’t win. I cannot imagine any scenario that he comes out on top. His chances of winning half a million dollars walked out the door with Kathy, because she was the only one who was a more inept competitor.
Hayden, Lane - These two are a toss-up. Against Ragan, they both lose. Against Britney or Enzo they both win, so the question mark is head to head. You need four votes to win. Currently in the jury house there are four votes. Rachel and Brandon will vote for Hayden. Matt and Kathy are toss-ups. Britney goes to Lane. Ragan goes to Hayden. Enzo is a wildcard. With three votes up in the air it is 3-1 in favor of Hayden. I would guess that Hayden picks up at least one of either Kathy or Matt with Enzo going to Lane.
So the winner of Big Brother 12 is...Hayden!
Friday, August 27, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Let the end-game begin (with big gaps in my thought process)
Hindsight is always 20/20. Given the way that the eviction and subsequent HOH competition went it was probably a poor idea to send Rachel home. I understand the reason(s) behind it, and not even Brendan being an insufferable douche could alter the path that the houseguests were on. Now it is apparent that much like a soldier in the cave of the crescent moon, they chose poorly.
If Rachel was still there she would have melted down like an ice cream cone in the mid-summer sun. Unable to even hold herself up, there is no way she would have been able to compete, much less win in a physical competition. I think in the end it would have been too much drama and they all realized it.
Now is where “The Brigade” either proves their mettle, or get shown to be poseurs. Everyone has their own “side-alliances” and the question is raised if these are actually true alliances or are these just false-fronts to make sure they have all of their bases covered.
FOUR DAYS LATER
Sometimes you get distracted and life gets in the way of things like blogging about reality shows. So here we sit, beyond the nominations, beyond the POV, beyond the POV being played and the subsequent replacement nominee. Things are much more interesting now.
Matt is nominated with one of his brigade buddies. Having the diamond power of veto gives Matt a unique outlook on how things are going to go from here to the end. Unfortunately for him he is playing one point incredibly wrong. Knowing that he is eventually safe the best bet for him would be to see how everyone reacts on the outside, but he keeps talking about his hope that there is a power that will save him. Despite this miss-step the rest of “The Brigade” are going to tell him that they are going to vote him out and keep Lane because they can’t beat him in the end.
What should Matt do?
He has two options: stick with “The Brigade” or blow it up from the inside. As it stands now he is playing for 4th place, the first of his alliance to fall once they are forced to turn upon themselves. Beyond those three he has Kathy, Ragan, Britney, and Brendan. The downside of blowing up his alliance is he has at least two people actively gunning for him. The upside is he has three people that have been lied to since day 3 (or so, whenever “The Brigade” was formed. If I were in his shoes I would put up Enzo as a replacement. Tell him that you guys were going to turn on me first so I am turning the tables. I would also flush out “The Brigade”, instilling distrust from Britney (which is a key for Matt to succeed.)
Who is the big winner this week?
Oddly enough Brendan. He went from number one on everybody’s hit list to “someone to take out later.” It bothers me that he will make it further, because he is a huge tool, and not a very good person. If nothing else Thursday should be very interesting, assuming that the diamond POV is played during the live show, with immediate nomination to follow, then eviction. Blindsides baby.
I will put up my end-game predictions after Thursday.
If Rachel was still there she would have melted down like an ice cream cone in the mid-summer sun. Unable to even hold herself up, there is no way she would have been able to compete, much less win in a physical competition. I think in the end it would have been too much drama and they all realized it.
Now is where “The Brigade” either proves their mettle, or get shown to be poseurs. Everyone has their own “side-alliances” and the question is raised if these are actually true alliances or are these just false-fronts to make sure they have all of their bases covered.
FOUR DAYS LATER
Sometimes you get distracted and life gets in the way of things like blogging about reality shows. So here we sit, beyond the nominations, beyond the POV, beyond the POV being played and the subsequent replacement nominee. Things are much more interesting now.
Matt is nominated with one of his brigade buddies. Having the diamond power of veto gives Matt a unique outlook on how things are going to go from here to the end. Unfortunately for him he is playing one point incredibly wrong. Knowing that he is eventually safe the best bet for him would be to see how everyone reacts on the outside, but he keeps talking about his hope that there is a power that will save him. Despite this miss-step the rest of “The Brigade” are going to tell him that they are going to vote him out and keep Lane because they can’t beat him in the end.
What should Matt do?
He has two options: stick with “The Brigade” or blow it up from the inside. As it stands now he is playing for 4th place, the first of his alliance to fall once they are forced to turn upon themselves. Beyond those three he has Kathy, Ragan, Britney, and Brendan. The downside of blowing up his alliance is he has at least two people actively gunning for him. The upside is he has three people that have been lied to since day 3 (or so, whenever “The Brigade” was formed. If I were in his shoes I would put up Enzo as a replacement. Tell him that you guys were going to turn on me first so I am turning the tables. I would also flush out “The Brigade”, instilling distrust from Britney (which is a key for Matt to succeed.)
Who is the big winner this week?
Oddly enough Brendan. He went from number one on everybody’s hit list to “someone to take out later.” It bothers me that he will make it further, because he is a huge tool, and not a very good person. If nothing else Thursday should be very interesting, assuming that the diamond POV is played during the live show, with immediate nomination to follow, then eviction. Blindsides baby.
I will put up my end-game predictions after Thursday.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Every week is a game-changer
The beauty of Big Brother is that it is next to impossible to run the table because of the constant shifting of power. Just because you have numbers, doesn’t mean you have ultimate control. On the flip side of that coin is the fact that the power is not totally in the hands of the HOH (necessarily). HOH has the power to put up whoever they want…but if you get far enough into the game the choices you have (of who to put on the block) become smaller and smaller and much like cannibals in a plane crash, eventually you have to eat your own.
Looking at the current power structure in the house there are 4.5 people who actually have a clue what is going on. As much as it pains me to say so, Enzo has done a masterful job putting together an alliance. Almost nobody has any clue that “The Brigade” exists, but someone is starting to piece it together. That person is…Ragan.
This week, moreso than any previous week is critical. Why? If the non-brigade doesn’t figure out that “The Brigade” is there it will be hard to prevent one of them from winning. I’d accept it as a fact that Kristen is going home tonight. She finally actually started showing some glimmer of personality, but that was when she was already halfway out the door.
Kristen leaving leaves the house with 9 left standing, half of which are “The Brigade” leaving Britney, Ragan, Kathy, Rachel, and Brendan. Britney is unwittingly the 5th member of “The Brigade”. I say unwittingly, because she has no idea that it exists and is more pared with individual members of “The Brigade”, especially Lane.
Sidenote: I asked the wifey if she would have issues with me doing certain things if I was on the show. Specifically some of the flirtation that is going on amongst the people who have significant others in the real world. Obviously what Kristen has been doing with a BF back home is wrong, but what about the flirtatious nature of the relationship between Britney and Lane. I don’t remember how she answered because I was distracted by Britney’s wonky eye. Back to the breakdown…
Kathy and Ragan are definitely floaters. They have some allegiance to a few people, but no well defined alliances. Ragan is oh so close to figuring out “The Brigade”, but hasn’t been quite able to get there yet. The only chance Rachel and B have right now is for the others to figure out (and figure out quickly) about the secret alliance, otherwise they are done. Barring a revelation of “The Brigade” if anyone other than Brendan win HOH, they are both on the block, assuring one of them goes home. I’m really looking forward to both the fireworks and the waterworks that will happen if this occurs.
Random thoughts:
Rachel is scary. She has a look that I’ve seen before. It is the “I’m a crazy, unhinged bitch and I’ll cut you” look.
Brendan is a pussy. My wife actually said those words. He is definitely the bottom in that relationship. The “fight” the two of them had was awful. Not awful in a good way, but awful in a boring way. It was like a poorly scripted fight. They repeated the same words over and over and over.
“You kept repeating yourself so I went out in the backyard. Then you came out and kept doing it…I’m sorry, but couldn’t you tell it was upsetting me?”
“I am Vegas.”
Blah, blah, blah.
There is no “hot chick” this season. Kathy has scary eyelashes. Rachel has really bad acne. Kristen has something wrong with her, I don’t know what, but she looks vaguely alien. Britney would be hot with an eye-patch.
Have you noticed that almost half the remaining people have not been targeted at all? Lane, Enzo, Ragan, Matt (he put himself on the block). Of those Enzo and Ragan have never been mentioned as being put up, with the exception of Enzo going up as a pawn.
The End-game
Double-elimination is coming up soon, and some of “The Brigade” have talked about not wanting to win the HOH tonight. That is stupid. You can’t play for “what might happen” you have to play for what you’re sure will happen. Honestly, the best case scenario for tonight is that Britney wins HOH. She puts up B/R and then one of them goes home for sure.
B/R, which one would be better to get rid of? This is a tough question. Rachel has won two HOH’s, but I’d argue that B is a bigger threat. Rachel also will completely self-destruct once B is out of the house, probably begging to get sent to the jury house. The downside of keeping her there is she is unbearable when she is happy. Imagine what she’ll be like when she’s upset.
With the eviction of Kristen tonight, the players that will be in the game (on the jury or actually in the game) until the end is set. This sets Matt up in a strong position, especially if Britney wins HOH tonight. Right now B/R feel that they can trust Matt, so that’s two votes for him. He only needs two more and to make it to the end an he’ll have a cool 500K to spend (which should have been mine.)
Looking at the current power structure in the house there are 4.5 people who actually have a clue what is going on. As much as it pains me to say so, Enzo has done a masterful job putting together an alliance. Almost nobody has any clue that “The Brigade” exists, but someone is starting to piece it together. That person is…Ragan.
This week, moreso than any previous week is critical. Why? If the non-brigade doesn’t figure out that “The Brigade” is there it will be hard to prevent one of them from winning. I’d accept it as a fact that Kristen is going home tonight. She finally actually started showing some glimmer of personality, but that was when she was already halfway out the door.
Kristen leaving leaves the house with 9 left standing, half of which are “The Brigade” leaving Britney, Ragan, Kathy, Rachel, and Brendan. Britney is unwittingly the 5th member of “The Brigade”. I say unwittingly, because she has no idea that it exists and is more pared with individual members of “The Brigade”, especially Lane.
Sidenote: I asked the wifey if she would have issues with me doing certain things if I was on the show. Specifically some of the flirtation that is going on amongst the people who have significant others in the real world. Obviously what Kristen has been doing with a BF back home is wrong, but what about the flirtatious nature of the relationship between Britney and Lane. I don’t remember how she answered because I was distracted by Britney’s wonky eye. Back to the breakdown…
Kathy and Ragan are definitely floaters. They have some allegiance to a few people, but no well defined alliances. Ragan is oh so close to figuring out “The Brigade”, but hasn’t been quite able to get there yet. The only chance Rachel and B have right now is for the others to figure out (and figure out quickly) about the secret alliance, otherwise they are done. Barring a revelation of “The Brigade” if anyone other than Brendan win HOH, they are both on the block, assuring one of them goes home. I’m really looking forward to both the fireworks and the waterworks that will happen if this occurs.
Random thoughts:
Rachel is scary. She has a look that I’ve seen before. It is the “I’m a crazy, unhinged bitch and I’ll cut you” look.
Brendan is a pussy. My wife actually said those words. He is definitely the bottom in that relationship. The “fight” the two of them had was awful. Not awful in a good way, but awful in a boring way. It was like a poorly scripted fight. They repeated the same words over and over and over.
“You kept repeating yourself so I went out in the backyard. Then you came out and kept doing it…I’m sorry, but couldn’t you tell it was upsetting me?”
“I am Vegas.”
Blah, blah, blah.
There is no “hot chick” this season. Kathy has scary eyelashes. Rachel has really bad acne. Kristen has something wrong with her, I don’t know what, but she looks vaguely alien. Britney would be hot with an eye-patch.
Have you noticed that almost half the remaining people have not been targeted at all? Lane, Enzo, Ragan, Matt (he put himself on the block). Of those Enzo and Ragan have never been mentioned as being put up, with the exception of Enzo going up as a pawn.
The End-game
Double-elimination is coming up soon, and some of “The Brigade” have talked about not wanting to win the HOH tonight. That is stupid. You can’t play for “what might happen” you have to play for what you’re sure will happen. Honestly, the best case scenario for tonight is that Britney wins HOH. She puts up B/R and then one of them goes home for sure.
B/R, which one would be better to get rid of? This is a tough question. Rachel has won two HOH’s, but I’d argue that B is a bigger threat. Rachel also will completely self-destruct once B is out of the house, probably begging to get sent to the jury house. The downside of keeping her there is she is unbearable when she is happy. Imagine what she’ll be like when she’s upset.
With the eviction of Kristen tonight, the players that will be in the game (on the jury or actually in the game) until the end is set. This sets Matt up in a strong position, especially if Britney wins HOH tonight. Right now B/R feel that they can trust Matt, so that’s two votes for him. He only needs two more and to make it to the end an he’ll have a cool 500K to spend (which should have been mine.)
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)