Matt, oh Matt. Why?
There are two mistakes regarding alliances that can kill you in reality shows. The first (and most common) one is abandoning your alliance too early. Countless times on Survivor people have jumped ship from their alliance, thinking the grass is greener. The second mistake is sticking with you alliance too long. When you have an alliance that contains more than two people, eventually you will have to start eating your own to get to the final two.
Matt stuck with “The Brigade” too long. After last week and his eye-opening experience with the benefit of the DPOV he knew he was fourth in an alliance of four. Back on the block this week he should have known that he was gone unless he made a move. Did he have a move to make? Absolutely, he had a great move. The voters were Brandon, Ragan, Hayden, and Lane, with Britney being the potential tie-breaker. It was obvious that he could have had Ragan. Hayden and Lane were snuggly in Enzo’s corner so he would have to work on Brandon, making a deal with the devil, but he did have a trump card which could have won both Brandon and Britney over. He should have EXPOSED “THE BRIGADE”! By doing so he levels the playing field. Everyone already saw him as a scheming liar, but by bringing out the others it would show that they were just as duplicitous and deceitful as he was. Brandon would have been a tough sell, but he (Brandon) had actually started playing with the departure of Rachel and he would have seen that Matt/Ragan/Britney would be easier to beat than the other option.
Elimination II: The Quickening
Had the nominations stayed the same last night for the second eviction, who would have gone home? I honestly think Ragan would have walked out the door directly behind his showmance partner Matt. Which would have been stupid, but would have fit with the MO of “The Brigade”. Without Matt “The Brigade” is like a really dumb, really strong infant. It has no logic with how it is doing things and is thinking about immediate gratification rather than the long-term picture.
Who’s left, who can win?
Ragan – If Ragan makes it to the end I think he wins. Before he FINALLY got evicted, people had talked about how if Brandon made it to the end they’d have to give it to him. Ragan is in the same boat.
Britney – She can’t win. Even though she has done very well and has won her share of competitions, I just can’t see her winning…unless she is in the final two against…
Enzo – He really can’t win. I cannot imagine any scenario that he comes out on top. His chances of winning half a million dollars walked out the door with Kathy, because she was the only one who was a more inept competitor.
Hayden, Lane - These two are a toss-up. Against Ragan, they both lose. Against Britney or Enzo they both win, so the question mark is head to head. You need four votes to win. Currently in the jury house there are four votes. Rachel and Brandon will vote for Hayden. Matt and Kathy are toss-ups. Britney goes to Lane. Ragan goes to Hayden. Enzo is a wildcard. With three votes up in the air it is 3-1 in favor of Hayden. I would guess that Hayden picks up at least one of either Kathy or Matt with Enzo going to Lane.
So the winner of Big Brother 12 is...Hayden!
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