Redemption Song

Fast (Times) wisdom
A wise man once said, “You know the attitude…You don’t care if she comes, stays, lays, or prays. No matter what happens, your toes are still tapping.” I think that is the attitude Survivor producers take when spitballing ideas. They throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks. Sometimes it works: hidden immunity idols, “the tribe has spoken”. Sometimes it doesn’t: The Medallion of Power and the much vaunted “Russell vs. Rob” battle which never came to be. Redemption Island seems to be sticking around beyond the current season, so I would put it in the sticking column.

The season that wasn’t
The Russell vs. Rob never stuck because they never really faced off. The producers made a bold move by putting the two of them out there as regular contestants, basically dooming Russell and making the head to head never come to pass.

Damn you, Jeff Probst
I did something I haven’t done in ages this week, I watched a show in real time. I never watch TV live. Even sporting events I am a few minutes behind on due to kids, wife, dog, and other distractions. I seldom answer the phone during football games and if I do I always answer with, “I’m ten minutes behind, don’t say anything about the game.” I watch TV this way for several reasons, not the least of which is I’ve invested a small fortune in HD Tivo’s with lifetime subscriptions on them, so I’ll use them. A more important reason is I have to go back, and back again, and back yet again to try to figure out what the fuck someone said. Closed captioning is great, but only when they actually caption EVERYTHING SAID. So I watched Survivor live. Why? Because Jeff Probst asked me to. Was it worth it? Absolutely. It added a neat layer in addition to the show, but I would pose a suggestion to the man in blue. Have CBS broadcast your tweets on CC2. It would allow people to watch the show, get the tweets without constantly shifting back and forth between a TV and a laptop. Will I do it again? Probably, which sucks because it means I have to watch commercials. Damn you Probst.

Editing
Two things jumped out at me from the editing today. Number one: which tribe would lose. Much too much time was spent with the tribe that lost, a disproportionate amount (I think), which told me who would lose. Number two: who would go home. Sarita didn’t get much air time compared to Stephanie and I think she’s (Sarita) had a bigger presence in earlier shows. Editors always give the bootee some time, but not always enough time to the booty.

Redemption Island Changes Things
Normally (every season before today) if a person was the second voted out they became nothing but a footnote for that season, not even having the claim of being the first boot. Redemption island has changed this drastically. Matt is one of the few very fleshed out castaways this season and he had his torch snuffed before the paint was dry on the Redemption Island set.

Redemption Island poses questions
Question 1: When will Matt (or whoever) get back into the game. I’ve heard theories (I’ve purposely avoided spoilers this season by not reading certain message boards or talking to Russel Hantz) that the person is “redeemed” back into the game as the last member of the final five. This poses one significant problem: They are on the jury, but if they don’t make the finals, they might not know the final two or three hardly at all.

Question 2: Do people get paid based on when their torch is snuffed or when they throw their buff onto the fire? At this point Matt has lasted almost to the jury stage, will his payment reflect this, or will he get second bootee payment?

Question 3: How many episodes are there going to be this season? Right now we are six episodes in and no one has quit, leaving 12 people still “in the game.” If you account for the two people on Redemption Island there are actually still 14 people left. Assuming a one person out per week (how would a double vote out work, will the duel at RI contain three people with only one winner?) scenario, to get down to a final three there would have to be 9 more episodes, which would push the season to 15, possibly 16 depending on how the RI turnover is handled.

Question 4: Will the powers that be realize that the show is too dense right now and should be moved to a 90 minute or two hour format in the future? The show feels incredibly compressed and the RI stuff takes up a lot of time so the show has no filler, but even more it feels like there are pieces of the puzzle that are not there.

Not Question 5: Dalton Ross commented something very astute about Redemption Island. The ability to get back in the game does kind of remove some of the oomph from snuffing of the torch. I think it works, but he’s right that it is not as dramatic or as meaningful.

How about I actually talk about the show?
There are two tribes: Tribe (not)Russell and Tribe (I <3) Rob. They are pretty stark contrasts for a number of reasons. Tribe Russell had it all. The power, the fame, the women, but they got greedy. Russell had to be gone, and now that tribe is on the slide. Redemption Island will probably actually play a factor in the end game. Tribe Rob was in trouble, a lot of trouble. They had an easy first boot, weakened the team with the second, then had an easy third boot. This game looks like it was actually engineered for Rob to win. He has a team of a wingman, two women that do his bidding, a woman that potentially might cause him problems, and an insane former federal agent. Rob has to screw up to not make the finals because his team is so pro-Rob they make Probst look anti-Rob.

The challenge
I remember this challenge from a long time ago, from Thailand I believe. It was (oddly enough) a guy named Robb with more jewelry in his face than will be buried with Elizabeth Taylor. Robb dominated that (reward) challenge and was later that episode rewarded with his team voting him off. In this season any question that the momentum had shifted disappeared and it was a 5-0 skunking of team Rob over team Russell. The alpha male showdown between Grant and Mike was as much of a battle as the aforementioned Russell/Rob thing, except that it actually happened. Grant actually proved that beyond being Rob’s lapdog, he is a great competitor. The reward was a meal and actually raised an interesting Rob subplot. Having the idol, what do you do with clues to the idol you already have? There are two paths he could take, string along one, or string along all. He already has Grant in his back pocket, so I think Rob would further cement his status with the others (and possibly bring Andrea further back into the fold) by sharing the worthless clue. He chose to stick with stringing along Grant and got caught by the crazy Secret Agent man. This might be the first crack in Rob’s gameplay, but more on that with who can win.

The losers have a choice
Stephanie or Sarita? Who do you choose? Honestly arguments could be made both ways, but the fact that the argument was there at all and that it was discussed could be the death-knell for Team Russell. David has a bug up his ass about Sarita, and any chance of him hiding it is long gone. Had the team voted for Stephanie like David wanted I think both David and Stephanie would have defected for Team Rob. Now that David didn’t get his way I think David will defect all on his own. David has the best shot of anyone on team Russell to make it all the way. By keeping Sarita you have someone who is scorned and doesn’t feel appreciated. Given the fact that she is seen as weak will help her if I’m correct and the merge is next week.

Who can win?
Matt: If he makes it off of Redemption Island and survives one tribal council back in the “real game” he will win it all. He will have a huge target, but if he makes it to the end I don’t think you can not give it to him. However, the show has seen undeserving winners in the past.

Stephanie: I like her, but she played her hand too fast. By jumping on Team Russell so quickly she fell out of favor with her tribe and now needs to beat Captain Bible to stay alive. If she had survived this week I would have said she could go all the way. Now, she won’t make it off Redemption Island.

Andrea: One of the few people on Team Rob (male or female) that wouldn’t gladly fellate Rob if he whipped it out. If Matt makes it back in she will go far and could win it all.

Ashley: Shouldn’t win. Can’t win. She’s Purple Kelly minus the quitting.

David: If he plays his cards right (and I think he will) he will flop at the merge, take out Rob shortly there after and pull a Cesternino except he will make it to the end. I pick him as the winner. Plus the fact that we haven’t seen more of him as yet makes me think there is more of his onion to be revealed. If he makes the finals I expect him to give the best finals speech ever. A guy I’d like to play like.

Grant: Very physical competitor. Not a good game player. He’s Rob’s lackey. If Rob is cut within a episode or two of the merge he can go deep. I don’t think he’ll make the finals.

Julie: Doesn’t seem to understand the game completely. Will probably be one of the first Team Russell women picked off solely due to her size. Can’t win.

Mike: The first to go after the merge. Can’t win.

Phillip: If he makes it to the merge he will be top five, if not top three. He can’t win, but everyone will want to take him to the end.

Ralph: Second to go after the merge and will leave with the idol in his pocket. Reminds me of Rupert, and not in a good way. Can’t win.

Rob: I don’t particularly care for the guy. I think he’s over rated. He was a douche in Marquesas. He played an awesome game in All-Stars (and should have won), came ill-prepared to Heroes vs. Villains and appeared to be playing the old game vs. the new game. This time around he was dealt a sweet hand. If I was up against any returning players I would want them out. Period. Wouldn’t matter if I liked them or not. They had their shot. It’s my turn. However he is playing well and no one seems to have wised up to the fact that he is playing them. If he makes the finals he wins. However, he won’t make the finals…I hope.

Sarita: If she survives next week she goes really deep, top 5, possible top 3. As a non-threat she is a good person to have around. Could make the finals. Won’t win if she does.

Steve: Age is a bitch. It must be humbling to have been a professional athlete for over a decade, but not be able to compete with people now. Not the greatest personality, but will probably be the last of the Team Russell to be booted because he is not a threat. Can’t win.


Epilogue: 300 hours for 1
Probst tweeted that they film 300 hours for every hour of footage. I am taking hour to mean episode. How does that break down? Figure pillar to post an episode is 72 hours (3 days). Subtract 15 hours for 5 hours of pretty much nothing going on (sleeping at night) and you are starting with 30 hours of footage (even though nothing is going on you have to have one camera on at each camp all the time). So starting with a base of 30, you have 57 hours to account for the other 270. That’s roughly 4.75 camera hours for every hour that occurs. I would think that was light because they absolutely must have two cameras at each camp the entire time. That leaves less than one full “floater camera” to be operating at a time. I’m guessing that they probably don’t film some of the time (the van ride to tribal council) and a few other things so that might actually be right. Probst would know (if he’d tell is another thing.)

What you've missed

Let there be Richard
Ten plus years ago (my god has it been that long) Mark Burnett captured lightning in a bottle. Taking an idea from Charlie Parsons, Burnett pitched this idea to several networks, and much like American Idol, most of the networks passed. Eventually the idea landed at CBS and it became a juggernaut. The Survivor phenomenon was huge for a while, but unlike other phenoms something amazing happened with it, it leveled off. Most things that are huge (see The Apprentice for both a reality TV and Mark Burnett tie in) don’t level off. They go from being huge to crashing, drawing numbers much more fitting of a UPN or cable channel. Survivor has gotten into a grove where it varies ratings-wise, but still delivers consistent numbers and eyeballs. Much of this was due to Richard Hatch. He seemed to be the only person that understood the game from day one. Much of Survivor’s success and the way the game is played is due to the foresight of the fat naked gay guy (thanks Rudy!).

And then there was Rupert
Pearl Islands brought us the lovable hippie with self-esteem issues. If you have ever read this blog before you know I’m not the biggest Rupert fan. He was great in the beginning, the stealing of the shoes was fantastic, but based on what happened later I think it was an aberration rather than a true trait of his. Rupert was a fascinating figure, but had an incredible edit, and had a sense of entitlement about the game, being the first (I believe) Survivor to claim that the game was his. I remember him almost coming to blows with Johnny Fairplay about voting for him. How dare someone do that? Rupert was the first Survivor that I openly heard people say they were done with the show because he got voted off. Never the less Rupert is one of a handful of reality TV alumnus that is instantly recognizable.

My god, it’s full of stars
Survivor 10 was the first of many times that the cast featured returning players. It stands unique in that it was the first time that players returned, and also in that it set the stage for returning players changing who they are. Boston Rob was an also ran in Maquesas, not making the jury. He was a character, which probably got him his spot, but much like his now-wife, he was a question mark for being on the show. It was one the most obvious examples of the right person not winning, and the fact that even seasoned (intentional) veterans let hurt feelings overpower what respect they should have for the game.

I missed it by “this much”
Survivor Micronesia, or Fans vs. Favorites, or half ASS (all star survivor) holds a special place in my cold black heart for several reasons, not the least of which were my conversations with Erika Shay, Lynne S. and others regarding this season before it happened, only to be left wanting. Anyway…this season showed that people are idiots. I’m not talking about ice cream scoopers giving away the game, but more about how being star struck makes you forget why you’re there. By the time you are on the beach and Jeff says, “Welcome to Survivor” you have already invested probably six months in the game from the time you sent in your app (unless you were found at a gas station in LA, but don’t get me started on that). Even pushing 40, six months is a substantial investment. You should have your eye on the prize. I’m guessing that neither the returning players nor the newbies knew what the swerve was for the season, so on the one hand they are all surprised. Still, in the game it would only be “fair” if everyone starts out with “all other things being equal”. The inequity, in my mind, comes from there must be a certain acclimation period before you are actually used to the fact that you are actually on Survivor, and you start just playing the game. Any new players had a major disadvantage. However if I was a non-returning player I would have done any and everything in my power to make sure a newbie won, even if it wasn’t me. They had their shot, it’s our time now.

And a troll will lead them
Using troll in the header is misleading. I love Russell. I think he is one of the best players ever, and also one of the worst. If you go back and read my blogs from his two seasons you will see that I felt he was his own worst enemy with some of his decisions. At the same time, there has never been a player that amazed me as much as he did. The idols, the power plays, coming from behind. It was shock, after shock, after shock. All the way until the end Russell was entertaining and shocking, with the topper being the shock that he didn’t win. I would have bet cash money that he was going to win, but I couldn’t find anyone to take that bet.

Again, really?
No, I’m not talking about bringing people back for the fourth time (I excluded Stephanie and Bobbie John’s retread), but rather who won Heroes vs. Villains. As much as I hate to admit it, Sandra does have a great strategy. Not one I would reward, but one that really works to the tune of 1.4 million bucks (accounting for taxes). This iteration of returning players was interesting because it had players that had played 18 or 19 seasons ago. Everybody could know everybody except Russell. This was an advantage for Russell as we’d see two seasons later, but was also a disadvantage as there were already alliances in place made outside the game. The interesting thing was watching a stud from season two (Colby) showing that ten years had slowed him, and that he had not kept up with the game since his last outing. The final three contained two of the best players ever, and the only two time winner. Once again hurt feelings overcame respect for the game and Parv. or Russell was robbed. If I was ever on the show the first night around the camp fire I would work in a conversation about winning, asking if there were two people, one who you liked but was just there, and one you didn’t like but played the game well, who would you vote to win. I would then try to quickly eliminate those who would vote for the friend (without throwing any challenges, because that is dumb).

Lets talk about THE MEDALLION OF POWER
Actually let’s forget it ever happened…next.

The third time wasn’t the charm
Rob v. Russell sounded like a good idea. I’m sure it did. However by placing them in separate tribes you never really got the head to head competition. Statistically Russell is still better than Rob, but we’ll see how this game shakes out. If you look at the two of them Russell and Rob really aren’t that different in how they play. If you look at Rob’s “betrayal” of Lex in All-Stars, it’s not that different than what Russell had done. Rob had a MUCH better social game. Russell played a much better strategic, manipulation game. Coming into this game both Rob and Russell had an advantage. They knew that they were going to be playing against newbs. That gave them a slight leg up. However, the main thing for this season was the prejudice against Russell. Much like being an unknown in HvV gave him a slight edge, being a known in this go round pretty much put a nail in his coffin before the game started. From day one it was a waiting game of when his tribe lost for when he’d go home. I don’t think he helped his cause at all, but he scrambled and tried to make do with what he had. The episode of his torch getting snuffed was engaging and right until the last second I thought Julie would flip. Honestly I think that would have been the better move for her, but we’ll see. Watching Russell break down and cry after losing at Redemption Island reminded me of the breakdown that Rob had in HvV. It made me respect them for the fact that they realized how lucky they are to be playing this game and what it meant for them. I don’t think Russell has a future in Survivor because people will always want to get rid of him first. He has, in my mind, replaced Rob C. as the best player not to win.

Redemption Island
I still don’t know what to make of it. On the one hand, the Russell Matt challenge was exciting, but it makes the show seem very busy. Maybe a 90 minute or two hour Survivor format is needed to accommodate all the extra stuff going on. I’m not sold on it yet, but I think it might work. I’d like it to be something that isn’t a given going forward, maybe it’ll happen, maybe it won’t. I think knowing beforehand (before the game starts) that there will be a RI changes the strategy a bit. I loved exile island and would love for it to return.

Lastly
A season with Russell and Rob would be bad enough, but adding in Secret Agent Man has left the remaining cast with little air time. Four episodes in a lot of the cast has not been fleshed out, hopefully this is not a cast of Purple Kellys. I fault Rob’s tribe for being star struck. A quarter of the way in his tribe should be figuring out how to hasten Rob’s exit, not how to keep him around. Obviously they are not winning challenges with him, losing him now will help them later. Any experience he’s brought has not translated into victories, their only victory being a thrown challenge. I do appreciate his gameplay this time, adapting his style, but I don’t think he has a shot at winning. As a three time player, I would be convinced to get rid of him as soon as possible. Do you really think the tribe would be weaker with Matt there instead of him. Right now I don’t have enough info to pick a winner other than to say I think it will be a woman from Russell’s tribe, but not one of his two girls.