Redemption Song

Fast (Times) wisdom
A wise man once said, “You know the attitude…You don’t care if she comes, stays, lays, or prays. No matter what happens, your toes are still tapping.” I think that is the attitude Survivor producers take when spitballing ideas. They throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks. Sometimes it works: hidden immunity idols, “the tribe has spoken”. Sometimes it doesn’t: The Medallion of Power and the much vaunted “Russell vs. Rob” battle which never came to be. Redemption Island seems to be sticking around beyond the current season, so I would put it in the sticking column.

The season that wasn’t
The Russell vs. Rob never stuck because they never really faced off. The producers made a bold move by putting the two of them out there as regular contestants, basically dooming Russell and making the head to head never come to pass.

Damn you, Jeff Probst
I did something I haven’t done in ages this week, I watched a show in real time. I never watch TV live. Even sporting events I am a few minutes behind on due to kids, wife, dog, and other distractions. I seldom answer the phone during football games and if I do I always answer with, “I’m ten minutes behind, don’t say anything about the game.” I watch TV this way for several reasons, not the least of which is I’ve invested a small fortune in HD Tivo’s with lifetime subscriptions on them, so I’ll use them. A more important reason is I have to go back, and back again, and back yet again to try to figure out what the fuck someone said. Closed captioning is great, but only when they actually caption EVERYTHING SAID. So I watched Survivor live. Why? Because Jeff Probst asked me to. Was it worth it? Absolutely. It added a neat layer in addition to the show, but I would pose a suggestion to the man in blue. Have CBS broadcast your tweets on CC2. It would allow people to watch the show, get the tweets without constantly shifting back and forth between a TV and a laptop. Will I do it again? Probably, which sucks because it means I have to watch commercials. Damn you Probst.

Editing
Two things jumped out at me from the editing today. Number one: which tribe would lose. Much too much time was spent with the tribe that lost, a disproportionate amount (I think), which told me who would lose. Number two: who would go home. Sarita didn’t get much air time compared to Stephanie and I think she’s (Sarita) had a bigger presence in earlier shows. Editors always give the bootee some time, but not always enough time to the booty.

Redemption Island Changes Things
Normally (every season before today) if a person was the second voted out they became nothing but a footnote for that season, not even having the claim of being the first boot. Redemption island has changed this drastically. Matt is one of the few very fleshed out castaways this season and he had his torch snuffed before the paint was dry on the Redemption Island set.

Redemption Island poses questions
Question 1: When will Matt (or whoever) get back into the game. I’ve heard theories (I’ve purposely avoided spoilers this season by not reading certain message boards or talking to Russel Hantz) that the person is “redeemed” back into the game as the last member of the final five. This poses one significant problem: They are on the jury, but if they don’t make the finals, they might not know the final two or three hardly at all.

Question 2: Do people get paid based on when their torch is snuffed or when they throw their buff onto the fire? At this point Matt has lasted almost to the jury stage, will his payment reflect this, or will he get second bootee payment?

Question 3: How many episodes are there going to be this season? Right now we are six episodes in and no one has quit, leaving 12 people still “in the game.” If you account for the two people on Redemption Island there are actually still 14 people left. Assuming a one person out per week (how would a double vote out work, will the duel at RI contain three people with only one winner?) scenario, to get down to a final three there would have to be 9 more episodes, which would push the season to 15, possibly 16 depending on how the RI turnover is handled.

Question 4: Will the powers that be realize that the show is too dense right now and should be moved to a 90 minute or two hour format in the future? The show feels incredibly compressed and the RI stuff takes up a lot of time so the show has no filler, but even more it feels like there are pieces of the puzzle that are not there.

Not Question 5: Dalton Ross commented something very astute about Redemption Island. The ability to get back in the game does kind of remove some of the oomph from snuffing of the torch. I think it works, but he’s right that it is not as dramatic or as meaningful.

How about I actually talk about the show?
There are two tribes: Tribe (not)Russell and Tribe (I <3) Rob. They are pretty stark contrasts for a number of reasons. Tribe Russell had it all. The power, the fame, the women, but they got greedy. Russell had to be gone, and now that tribe is on the slide. Redemption Island will probably actually play a factor in the end game. Tribe Rob was in trouble, a lot of trouble. They had an easy first boot, weakened the team with the second, then had an easy third boot. This game looks like it was actually engineered for Rob to win. He has a team of a wingman, two women that do his bidding, a woman that potentially might cause him problems, and an insane former federal agent. Rob has to screw up to not make the finals because his team is so pro-Rob they make Probst look anti-Rob.

The challenge
I remember this challenge from a long time ago, from Thailand I believe. It was (oddly enough) a guy named Robb with more jewelry in his face than will be buried with Elizabeth Taylor. Robb dominated that (reward) challenge and was later that episode rewarded with his team voting him off. In this season any question that the momentum had shifted disappeared and it was a 5-0 skunking of team Rob over team Russell. The alpha male showdown between Grant and Mike was as much of a battle as the aforementioned Russell/Rob thing, except that it actually happened. Grant actually proved that beyond being Rob’s lapdog, he is a great competitor. The reward was a meal and actually raised an interesting Rob subplot. Having the idol, what do you do with clues to the idol you already have? There are two paths he could take, string along one, or string along all. He already has Grant in his back pocket, so I think Rob would further cement his status with the others (and possibly bring Andrea further back into the fold) by sharing the worthless clue. He chose to stick with stringing along Grant and got caught by the crazy Secret Agent man. This might be the first crack in Rob’s gameplay, but more on that with who can win.

The losers have a choice
Stephanie or Sarita? Who do you choose? Honestly arguments could be made both ways, but the fact that the argument was there at all and that it was discussed could be the death-knell for Team Russell. David has a bug up his ass about Sarita, and any chance of him hiding it is long gone. Had the team voted for Stephanie like David wanted I think both David and Stephanie would have defected for Team Rob. Now that David didn’t get his way I think David will defect all on his own. David has the best shot of anyone on team Russell to make it all the way. By keeping Sarita you have someone who is scorned and doesn’t feel appreciated. Given the fact that she is seen as weak will help her if I’m correct and the merge is next week.

Who can win?
Matt: If he makes it off of Redemption Island and survives one tribal council back in the “real game” he will win it all. He will have a huge target, but if he makes it to the end I don’t think you can not give it to him. However, the show has seen undeserving winners in the past.

Stephanie: I like her, but she played her hand too fast. By jumping on Team Russell so quickly she fell out of favor with her tribe and now needs to beat Captain Bible to stay alive. If she had survived this week I would have said she could go all the way. Now, she won’t make it off Redemption Island.

Andrea: One of the few people on Team Rob (male or female) that wouldn’t gladly fellate Rob if he whipped it out. If Matt makes it back in she will go far and could win it all.

Ashley: Shouldn’t win. Can’t win. She’s Purple Kelly minus the quitting.

David: If he plays his cards right (and I think he will) he will flop at the merge, take out Rob shortly there after and pull a Cesternino except he will make it to the end. I pick him as the winner. Plus the fact that we haven’t seen more of him as yet makes me think there is more of his onion to be revealed. If he makes the finals I expect him to give the best finals speech ever. A guy I’d like to play like.

Grant: Very physical competitor. Not a good game player. He’s Rob’s lackey. If Rob is cut within a episode or two of the merge he can go deep. I don’t think he’ll make the finals.

Julie: Doesn’t seem to understand the game completely. Will probably be one of the first Team Russell women picked off solely due to her size. Can’t win.

Mike: The first to go after the merge. Can’t win.

Phillip: If he makes it to the merge he will be top five, if not top three. He can’t win, but everyone will want to take him to the end.

Ralph: Second to go after the merge and will leave with the idol in his pocket. Reminds me of Rupert, and not in a good way. Can’t win.

Rob: I don’t particularly care for the guy. I think he’s over rated. He was a douche in Marquesas. He played an awesome game in All-Stars (and should have won), came ill-prepared to Heroes vs. Villains and appeared to be playing the old game vs. the new game. This time around he was dealt a sweet hand. If I was up against any returning players I would want them out. Period. Wouldn’t matter if I liked them or not. They had their shot. It’s my turn. However he is playing well and no one seems to have wised up to the fact that he is playing them. If he makes the finals he wins. However, he won’t make the finals…I hope.

Sarita: If she survives next week she goes really deep, top 5, possible top 3. As a non-threat she is a good person to have around. Could make the finals. Won’t win if she does.

Steve: Age is a bitch. It must be humbling to have been a professional athlete for over a decade, but not be able to compete with people now. Not the greatest personality, but will probably be the last of the Team Russell to be booted because he is not a threat. Can’t win.


Epilogue: 300 hours for 1
Probst tweeted that they film 300 hours for every hour of footage. I am taking hour to mean episode. How does that break down? Figure pillar to post an episode is 72 hours (3 days). Subtract 15 hours for 5 hours of pretty much nothing going on (sleeping at night) and you are starting with 30 hours of footage (even though nothing is going on you have to have one camera on at each camp all the time). So starting with a base of 30, you have 57 hours to account for the other 270. That’s roughly 4.75 camera hours for every hour that occurs. I would think that was light because they absolutely must have two cameras at each camp the entire time. That leaves less than one full “floater camera” to be operating at a time. I’m guessing that they probably don’t film some of the time (the van ride to tribal council) and a few other things so that might actually be right. Probst would know (if he’d tell is another thing.)