Mr. Kotter
It’s been awhile. Redemption Island sucked my will to blog about Survivor because it was so blatantly Boston Rob centric that I didn’t feel like writing about it. South Pacific has been much better. A balanced game with shifting power structures and improved game play from a less douchey Coach, and hissy fits from “the winningest Survivor ever.”
Time
One of the things they say about professional quarterbacks is that they get good when the game “slows down” for them. As a pitcher they say the worst thing you can do is “aim the ball”. Looking at a game like Survivor or Big Brother (but let’s stick with Survivor because it is “in season”) I imagine the hardest thing to do is to sit and let the game “come to you”.
There are 24 hours in a day, even in the South Pacific. That’s a lot of time. A lot of time to think. Thinking is usually a good thing, but too much thinking becomes over thinking and you can think yourself right out of the game. Coach’s old tribe (I will refer to them as Utapau out of respect to George Lucas) along with Cochran are in the driver’s seat. It is an enviable position, but also a difficult position. Why is it difficult? Because they literally have a week long period where they don’t have to think about the game, or at least they shouldn’t. Time will come when changes need to be made, but, at least the core Utapau six, that time is not now. They have a final six +1 situation. Until they get down to one remaining Ozzy-team member even immunity shouldn’t derail their plans. Those multiple ticks of the clock (I saw a survivor wearing a watch which I thought was forbidden) are creeping into the heads of some of the Utapau and this is good news for two people…
Cochran and Dawn
Cochran made the right move. Stephen Fishbach can say whatever he wants, Cochran made the right move. On the Ozzy tribe he was a man without a country, solidly in the sixth place column, with his only ally being right behind him in the fifth slot. By making his move he goes from an (at best) sixth to an (at worst) seventh. The difference being he had no shot (other than winning immunities) to move up through the ranks of the six. Although the other six seem solid on Utapau, he did not know this and it also gives him possibilities.
Survivor isn’t supposed to be a personal game, but at some level it always is. Even though it’s “just a strategic move and not personal” that doesn’t make you feel any better at loser lodge or even worse Redemption Island (more about this later). All that being said, some of the things said and done to Cochran were crappy, not on a game level, but on a human level. Keith was a dick to Cochran. Ozzy wasn’t much better, and had a sense of entitlement not seen since Boston Rob rolled over the idiots last season. Perhaps Brandon said it best when Cochran flipped and Jim called him a coward. They were treating Cochran bad, and Survivor was imitating life with Cochran being the geek that you don’t have to treat with respect. The fallout after tribal was more of the same. I would argue that making this move doesn’t make Cochran a coward, rather it makes him brave for standing on his own two feet and “fighting his own battles” as he was accused of not doing by uber-prick Keith.
Dawn seemed to recognize this, right up until she won the immunity idol. At that point she abandoned her support and possible understanding of Cochran jumping ship. It’s easier to hold tribal lines when you know you’re not going to pick a rock to decide your destiny. Still, she is actually in a really good position. It wouldn’t look like it right now, but if you follow along she is in a position to go far in this game if she plays her cards right.
Who’s a threat?
Apparently Dawn if you listen to Albert, which is stupid. Your chances of beating Dawn in most challenges is going to be much greater than Jim. Here is where the game gets interesting. Cochran is a smart guy, and a student of the game. He knows that in the end it is a numbers game. Not including Redemption Island, there are nine people remaining, so the magic number is five. Whitney is next to go unless she wins immunity, which brings it down to eight. Albert is already getting stir-crazy and is not letting the game come to him so the Coach six are going to splinter. Cochran (and by proxy Dawn) will have to choose sides. They have two options.
The split
Utapau will splinter into two groups, Coach, Edna, the mustache guy, and Brandon on one side with Sophie and Albert on the other. Cochran will have to decide where he wants to hang his (borrowed) cowboy hat. He’s already shown that he doesn’t want to draw rocks so he will pull Dawn into the smaller coach alliance in a final six deal. Albert and Sophie are removed from the game and we get to another situation where Cochran and Dawn are on the outside looking in. From here I don’t know where they go, but Cochran has moved from six to five and still is in the game. I would guess it would play out that Albert goes, Cochran and Dawn align with Sophie, pick up the Cowboy (he’s last in that alliance) and boot Coach. Brandon probably kills someone at this point which disqualifies him from the game.
Redemption Island sucks
There is no hiding it, Redemption Island is dumb, and it hurts the game. It lessens the impact of removing someone from the game and unlike the torch snuffing at night, losing a duel during the day (after having time to reflect that your game is probably over) is just less dramatic and emotional. Who will come back from R. I.? I don’t know, but as long as it’s not Ozzy I’ll be happy.
Ozzy is an idiot
Survivor is full of unknowns. The only thing you can count on is the unexpected. Expect the unexpected? Wrong show. When dealing with a ton of ambiguity the best play is to deal with what you do know, and worry about the rest as it comes up. Asking to be sent to Redemption Island is like volunteering to be a pawn (wrong show again.) It is basically asking to lose the game. Even though his gamble paid off and he was right in his assumptions he is in a worse position than he would have been had he not taken this major gamble. If they had sent Cochran to RI he would have lost, the sassy Long Islander would have come back and had much more loyalty to Ozzy’s tribe. Rocks would have been picked and it would be a completely different game. Ozzy’s need to prove himself has proven himself right out of the game.
Finally
Enough with the returning players. We get it. There’s been a colorful person or ten over the years on Survivor. Part of the fun of the show was getting to know these new people. If the returning player mania had started two years ago we never would have gotten Russell Hantz. By continuing to bring people back and giving them more air time than others you are preventing the audience from discovering the next great Survivor player.
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